The Big Five
1. The 0-for-5 Streak: Senate Rejects Iran War Powers Resolution Again, 46–51
On Wednesday, April 22, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) brought the fifth Senate war powers resolution of the year directing the president to remove U.S. forces from hostilities with Iran absent congressional authorization. It failed 46–51.
The scoreboard, which now reads like a stat line: One Republican voted YES — Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), the Cal Ripken of this beat. One Democrat voted NO — Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA). Margin shrank from -7 to -5 since the previous vote. Senate Armed Services Chair Roger Wicker (R-MS) called a yes vote “unwise” and “dangerous” because “it would tie the commander-in-chief’s hands at a time when he needs maximum flexibility.”
Senate Majority Leader John Thune was asked how he plans to handle the May 1 expiration. His full answer: “We’ll see… The president’s still within that allotted time, he can extend it, I think, 30 days unilaterally. But you know, we’re listening.” That is not a position. That is a posture.
The May 1 question nobody is asking out loud: The War Powers Resolution allows a president to extend hostilities by up to 30 additional days if he certifies in writing that “unavoidable military necessity” related to the safety of U.S. armed forces requires it. Trump has not made that certification. He has, instead, declared the ceasefire indefinite by Truth Social post. There is no statute that recognizes “Truth Social post” as a substitute for a written certification under 50 U.S.C. § 1544(b). Yet here we are.
May 1 is Friday. If the administration produces no certification and the campaign continues, your DoD primes will assume continued operations and your subcontract pipeline will reflect it. The sub-tier defense supply base is being asked, again, to plan around a clock that is being run by tweet.
2. DHS Day 71: The Senate Goes Reconciliation, the House Has Not Gone Anywhere
The DHS shutdown that began February 14 is now 71 days old. The previous all-time record fell so long ago the Wikipedia page no longer tracks the comparison.
What changed this week: Tuesday, April 21 — Senate GOP leaders unveiled a $70 billion ICE/Border Patrol budget plan and announced they would attempt to ram it through reconciliation. Tuesday-Wednesday vote-a-rama — the Senate adopted the budget resolution 50–48. Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Rand Paul (R-KY) joined Democrats in voting against. The House has not adopted the budget resolution. Has not committed to a date. Has not, in fact, voted on the bipartisan Senate-passed DHS funding bill from March that the Senate sent over by unanimous consent.
The legal question that won’t go away: Trump has used executive orders to keep paying selected DHS employees through this lapse. The Antideficiency Act forbids agencies from obligating funds Congress has not appropriated. GAO has not yet issued an opinion. The only person who has issued a legal opinion is the president, in the form of an executive order.
If you do business with DHS — FEMA recovery, CISA grants, Coast Guard contracts, port security, FLETC training — you are 71 days into a receivable cycle that has no end in sight. Hurricane season starts June 1, which is also the president’s reconciliation deadline.
3. The Ceasefire That Lasts Until Iran Stops Arguing With Itself
On Monday, April 21, Trump announced he was extending the Iran ceasefire — which he had previously said would expire Wednesday — “until such time as” Iran’s “seriously fractured” government delivers a “unified proposal.” On Friday, U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner flew to Pakistan for what the White House described as direct talks. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi landed in Pakistan the same day.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei then posted on X that no meeting between Iran and the U.S. was planned. “Iran’s observations would be conveyed to Pakistan.” Translation: we will tell Pakistan what we think, Pakistan can tell you, and we never had to be in the same room.
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth announced Friday that the U.S. Navy is authorized to “shoot to destroy” any Iranian fast boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade of Iranian ports remains in place.
“Both President Trump and the Iranian leadership think they are winning, so we have a stalemate over the strait… So yes, he blinked.” — Steven Cook, Council on Foreign Relations
Anything you import that touches a hull, a barrel, a tanker, or a chip transits the Strait of Hormuz or its insurance pool. The “shoot to destroy” guidance and the open-ended ceasefire are reading as a permanent risk premium on Gulf shipping. Plan your Q3 freight budget on current premiums plus 10%, not on a hoped-for de-escalation.
4. Section 122 Tariffs: The Court of International Trade Is Trying to Define a Word
Quick recap because we are now four legal regimes deep into 2026: Feb. 20 — Supreme Court strikes down IEEPA tariffs in Learning Resources. Feb. 24 — 10% Section 122 tariffs go on at 12:01 a.m. Mar. 5 — 24 state attorneys general sue in the Court of International Trade. Apr. 10 — CIT oral argument. The phrase “balance of payments” is uttered 194 times in a single hearing. A judge tells DOJ counsel: “Please help us figure it out. It’s a term in a statute, and we’re trying to define it.” Jul. 24 — Statutory expiration unless Congress votes to extend.
The administration’s central argument is that the courts cannot review a presidential finding that there is a “large and serious” balance-of-payments deficit. This is the same DOJ that argued, six months ago in the IEEPA case, that Section 122 had no “obvious application” to the situation because trade deficits are “conceptually distinct” from balance-of-payments deficits. The brief is in the public record. The CIT panel has it.
Treasury reports U.S. official reserve assets at $252.565 billion as of April 3, 2026 — the highest in U.S. history. Whether that is or is not a “balance of payments deficit” sufficient to support a 10% across-the-board surcharge is now a question for three judges in lower Manhattan.
THE story for any importer. The CIT could rule any week. If they rule for the states, your duty collections could stop in days — your accounting team needs a refund-tracking workflow ready now if Section 122 charges are on your invoices.
5. The 25th Amendment Conversation Re-Enters the Chat: Raskin’s H.R. 8275 Hits 78 Cosponsors
On April 14, Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD), Ranking Member of House Judiciary, introduced H.R. 8275, the Commission on Presidential Capacity to Discharge the Powers and Duties of Office Act. The implementing legislation for Section 4 of the 25th Amendment, the part that has been sitting on the constitutional shelf since 1967 because Congress has never bothered to build the body the amendment requires.
Introduced with 50 cosponsors. By Sunday, April 19, the count was up to 78. By the time you read this, expect higher.
What the bill actually does: Creates a 17-member independent Commission on Presidential Capacity. The Speaker, House Minority Leader, Senate Majority Leader, and Senate Minority Leader each pick four members: a mix of retired statespersons (former Presidents, VPs, Secretaries of State/Defense/Treasury, AGs, Surgeons General), four physicians, and four psychiatrists. The 16 select a 17th as Chair. Congress can pass a concurrent resolution requiring the Commission to examine the President and report findings. If the Vice President AND a majority of the Commission find the president incapacitated, the VP becomes Acting President.
What changed: Trump issued a series of escalating Iran threats earlier this month, including the line that “a whole civilization will die” if Tehran did not strike a peace deal. That moved more than 70 House Democrats to call for his removal. Raskin then wrote to White House Physician Capt. Sean Barbabella demanding “an immediate and comprehensive cognitive and neurological evaluation” with public disclosure. The bill text followed shortly after.
The equal-opportunity reminder: Republicans floated 25th Amendment language against Biden in 2024. Democrats floated it against Trump in 2017, 2020, and 2021. Both parties discover the 25th Amendment when they are out of presidential power and forget where they put it when they are not. Raskin’s bill is the first one in 59 years that proposes actually building the body the amendment names — serious institutional reform or partisan messaging vehicle, depending on how the next 18 months go. It will not pass the House this Congress. 78 cosponsors out of 218 needed is the football equivalent of a 4th-and-25 check-down.
THE constitutional sleeper of the spring. If the Commission ever stands up — even years from now under a different administration — it changes the answer to “who can sign an EO” and “whose pen authorizes a contract action” during any future presidential health event. Track the cosponsor count. If it crosses 100 it is a movement; if it stalls under 90, it is a press release.
ICYMI
- House Appropriations FY27 markup season opened. Tom Cole (R-OK) gaveled in. MilCon-VA and FSGG marked up Tuesday/Wednesday. NSRP subcommittee Thursday at $47.32B (-6% YoY). Defense Appropriations date NOT on the calendar. CENTCOM commander testimony postponed to late May, no reason given.
- Senate Armed Services Indo-Pacific posture hearing (April 21) — INDOPACOM commander and U.S. Forces Korea commander testified on FY27 NDAA request. China, Korea, Taiwan. Maritime, ISR, theater logistics — the transcript is worth a read.
- House Armed Services Cyber subcommittee hearing (April 21) — Two new defense officials defended an “aggressive operational tempo” while Democrats pressed on whether DOGE-driven workforce cuts have undermined the force. Operation Epic Fury (Iran) and Operation Absolute Resolve (Venezuela) named in open session.
- Senate Armed Services Strategic Forces subcommittee (April 20) — NNSA, DOE-EM, Naval Reactors, Air Force Global Strike Command, ASD(NCB) all testified. The full nuclear enterprise. Quiet hearing, big numbers.
- House Ethics turnover. Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-FL) resigned Tuesday roughly an hour before Ethics sanctions related to a federal indictment alleging her family’s healthcare business funneled ~$5M in COVID disaster relief to fund her 2021 campaign. Pleaded not guilty. Rep. Cory Mills (R-FL) is also under Ethics Committee investigation. Two Florida House seats now in flux.
- DHS funding kabuki: The bipartisan Senate-passed bill from March 27 (H.R. 7147) is still sitting on the House calendar, untouched, while the Senate races down the reconciliation track. Both paths are live; neither is finished.
- SBA disaster loans: Onboarding of new adjusters remains paused. Hurricane season is 36 days away — same day as the president’s reconciliation deadline.
The 60-day War Powers clock expires May 1 — Friday. Which of these happens FIRST?
A) The president files the written 30-day “unavoidable military necessity” extension certification under 50 U.S.C. § 1544(b)
B) Congress passes an Iran AUMF
C) A negotiated ceasefire actually holds with no shoot-to-destroy ROE on Hormuz
D) Raskin’s H.R. 8275 cosponsor count crosses 100
E) The Pittsburgh Steelers announce a Week 1 starting quarterback
Hit reply and tell us. Best answers featured next week. (The smart money is on A. D is in play if the cosponsors come back from recess with their pens out. The Steelers will hold their QB1 announcement for July at the earliest — Drew Allar throws a pretty ball, but so does Aaron Rodgers, and the Steelers signed Aaron Rodgers in 2025 for a reason.)
