Golden Tempo went off at 23-1 and ran from dead last to first under the first female trainer ever to win the Run for the Roses. Same week, the Senate’s 6th Iran war powers resolution failed 47–50 — but Susan Collins finally crossed over. King Charles addressed Congress. Banking sent Warsh out 13–11. The Space Force asked for $71.1 billion. Your Derby Day briefing.
- Senate rejected Iran War Powers Resolution #6 (S.J.Res. 184) 47–50 on Thursday, April 30 — hours before the 60-day clock from Trump’s March 2 notification expired Friday at midnight. Schiff sponsor, Kaine co-lead. Collins (R-ME) crossed over for the first time, joining Paul. Fetterman remains the lone D voting no.
- King Charles III addressed a Joint Meeting of Congress on Tuesday, April 28 — second British monarch ever to do so. Affirmed AUKUS, NATO, F-35 co-production. Gifted Trump the original conning-tower bell from the WWII submarine HMS Trump.
- Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair nomination cleared Banking Committee 13–11 on April 29 — first fully partisan committee vote on a Fed Chair nominee in history. Thune filed cloture April 30. Final vote week of May 11. Powell’s term expires May 15.
- S. 874 (Expanding Whistleblower Protections for Contractors Act) passed Senate by UC on April 29. Grassley/Peters bipartisan. Closes loopholes for federal contractor and grantee employees who report waste/fraud/abuse. Now headed to House.
- HAC-D held the FY27 Air Force / Space Force budget hearing on April 30. Space Force request: $71.1B, a 124% jump from FY26. Air Force Weapons System Sustainment ask: $24.8B. FSRM up 110% to $13.6B. Calvert flagged a likely supplemental for Operation Epic Fury aircraft losses.
- House passed nothing of consequence. Senate adjourned for week-long recess; reconvenes Monday, May 11. The DHS shutdown is on day 78. The bipartisan Senate-passed DHS bill (H.R. 7147) still sits on the House calendar, untouched.
The first Saturday in May. 152nd Kentucky Derby. Cherie DeVaux puts a 23-1 longshot named Golden Tempo in the gate, and Jose Ortiz pulls him deliberately to the back of the field. The chalk — Renegade, So Happy, Further Ado — went off as co-favorites at 5-1, but six horses came in at 9-1 or better, the most-bunched top of the odds sheet anyone could remember. Going into the far turn, Golden Tempo was last. Going into the stretch, Golden Tempo was last but moving. At the wire he was first by a nose over Renegade, in 2:02.27, and Cherie DeVaux became the first woman ever to train a Derby winner. Jose Ortiz, who had also won the Oaks the night before with Always a Runner, became the ninth jockey ever to sweep the weekend.
Last to first. It is a useful frame for the week Washington had.
On Thursday, April 30, the Senate took up Sen. Adam Schiff’s S.J.Res. 184 — the sixth Iran war powers resolution since the campaign began on March 2. The motion to discharge from Foreign Relations failed 47–50. Same approximate margin, same Republican one-vote-at-a-time defections. But this time the second Republican wasn’t Murkowski or Collins-on-procedural-grounds. It was Susan Collins (R-ME) on the merits — the first time she had ever voted yes on one of these. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) called the campaign “dangerous, unnecessary, and idiotic.” Hegseth told the same body the same day that the administration’s interpretation is that the 60-day clock “pauses or stops in a ceasefire.” That is not a phrase that appears in 50 U.S.C. § 1544(b). It is a phrase that appears in Pete Hegseth’s mouth.
Friday at midnight, the clock ran out. The president filed no written certification of “unavoidable military necessity.” The campaign continues. Anybody who tells you with confidence what the legal status of U.S. operations in the Persian Gulf is on the morning of Sunday, May 3, 2026, is selling something.
Meanwhile, on the same Thursday, three star-and-bar witnesses — SecAF Troy Meink, CSAF Gen. Ken Wilsbach, CSO Gen. Chance Saltzman — sat in front of the House Defense Approps subcommittee and asked for $71.1 billion for the Space Force. That is a 124% increase over the FY26 request. They asked for $24.8 billion in Weapons System Sustainment, most of it because mission-capable rates have been dragging for years and because Operation Epic Fury — the Iran air campaign — chewed through A-10s, B-1s, F-15Es, and B-52s that are now coming home for refurbishment. Calvert flagged that a supplemental will likely follow.
And on Tuesday, the King of England came to town. Charles III became the second British monarch in history to address a Joint Meeting of Congress, gifted the President the original conning-tower bell from a WWII submarine named HMS Trump, and quoted AUKUS by name in a chamber where the loudest voices on his host’s side of the aisle have spent the better part of a year arguing the opposite. “Should you ever need to get hold of us,” Charles told the President at the state dinner, “just give us a ring.” That bell is now in the East Wing. The clock on AUKUS Pillar 1 is in San Diego, in the form of two SSNs the U.S. is supposed to deliver to the Royal Australian Navy in 2032. That clock is a separate horse race, and it is also at the back of the field.
Pads on. The bugler is playing “My Old Kentucky Home.” Drink your bourbon.
Xs & Os: The Congressional Card — Run for the Roses
Churchill Downs ran the 152nd Derby on May 2, the 152nd Oaks on May 1 (first Oaks ever held under the lights). The Congressional card had nine races on it this week.
| Pos | Senator | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| WIN | The motion to table | 50–47, sixth straight win for the Executive Branch on this beat |
| PLACE | Adam Schiff (D-CA) | Sponsor, finished 3 lengths off the leader; second straight close |
| SHOW | Susan Collins (R-ME) | First time she’s voted YES — closed strong from the back |
| ALSO RAN | Rand Paul (R-KY) | Cal Ripken of this race; on the board every time |
| SCRATCHED | John Fetterman (D-PA) | Lone D voting NO; sixth scratch in a row |
| Field | Detail |
|---|---|
| WIN | Passed by Unanimous Consent, April 29 |
| TRAINER | Grassley (R-IA) and Peters (D-MI), bipartisan |
| POST POSITION | Long-suffering DoD contractor employees who flag fraud and get retaliated against |
| NEXT | Travels to House for the Stakes (H.R. 5578 companion) |
| Field | Detail |
|---|---|
| WIN | Kevin Warsh out of Banking, 13–11 strict party line — first fully partisan Fed Chair vote in committee history |
| POST | Cloture filed April 30; final vote week of May 11 |
| TRACK CONDITION | Powell’s term expires May 15; Tillis dropped his hold after DOJ closed the Powell criminal probe |
| TRIFECTA EXOTIC | Whoever does cash management for a small business heading into a 4-yr Warsh chair |
| Field | Detail |
|---|---|
| WIN | Charles III, by 30 minutes of pointed-but-velvety remarks |
| TALKING POINTS | AUKUS, NATO, F-35, climate, “Saturday’s shooting at the WHCD” |
| GIFT | The conning-tower bell from HMS Trump (1944, Pacific theater); now hangs in the East Wing |
| QUOTE | “Should you ever need to get hold of us, just give us a ring.” |
| Hearing | Headline |
|---|---|
| HAC-D Air Force/Space Force | Meink, Wilsbach, Saltzman testify; $71.1B Space Force ask, +124% YoY; $24.8B WSS |
| HAC CJS markup | FY27 Commerce, Justice, Science |
| HAC NSRP markup | FY27 National Security/State (rescheduled to April 28) |
| HPSCI closed FY27 | DNI Tulsi Gabbard, USDI&S Bradley Hansell |
The scoring play of the week: Hegseth telling a Senate panel that the 60-day War Powers clock “pauses or stops in a ceasefire.” In horse racing this is called “rating the field from the rail.” In statutory interpretation it is called “making it up at the lectern.”
| Team | Record | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Executive Branch on War Powers | 6–0 since Feb. 28 | Stakes-class form |
| Congress (collectively) on War Powers | 0–6 | Maiden, never broken |
| DHS contractors | Day 78, no funding | Scratched indefinitely |
| Defense industrial base | $71.1B SSF ask, $24.8B WSS, supplemental pending | Card stuffed |
| Contractor whistleblowers | UC pass on S. 874 | First win in a decade |
The Big Five
1. The 0-for-6 Streak: Senate Rejects Iran War Powers Resolution Again, 47–50 — But Collins Crosses Over
On Thursday, April 30 — one day before the 60-day War Powers Resolution clock from Trump’s March 2 notification expired — the Senate voted 47–50 to reject the motion to discharge S.J.Res. 184 from the Foreign Relations Committee. The resolution was authored by Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA) with co-leads Tim Kaine (D-VA), Chris Murphy (D-CT), Cory Booker (D-NJ), Andy Kim (D-NJ), Jeff Merkley (D-OR), and Tammy Baldwin (D-WI).
The headline change from prior votes: Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) joined Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) in voting yes — the first time Collins has voted for any of the six Iran war powers measures since hostilities began. Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) remained the lone Democrat voting no, his sixth straight no vote.
Sen. Kaine on the floor: the Iran campaign is “dangerous, unnecessary, and idiotic.” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer: “Americans want President Trump to lower prices, not drag us into unnecessary forever wars.” Senate Majority Leader John Thune: nothing especially memorable.
The administration’s position, articulated by SecDef Pete Hegseth at a Senate hearing the same Thursday, is that the 60-day clock “pauses or stops in a ceasefire.” That phrase does not appear in 50 U.S.C. § 1544(b). The statute requires the President to either (a) terminate the introduction of armed forces, or (b) certify in writing that “unavoidable military necessity respecting the safety of United States Armed Forces requires the continued use” — and even then for not more than 30 additional days. As of the morning of May 3, no such written certification has been filed.
Same as last week, but with one new wrinkle. Collins crossing over means the next vote will likely be 48–49 — within a single defection of passing the Senate. If a Republican retirement announcement, a single Murkowski yes, or a Murkowski-and-someone-else combination ever materializes, the Senate could actually pass one of these. That moves the conversation from messaging to policy and forces the House to act. If you’re modeling Q3 defense subcontract pipelines around continued operations, build in a tail-risk scenario where Senate passage of an Iran withdrawal forces an early de-escalation.
2. The Crown’s Joint Meeting: Charles III Reads Washington the AUKUS Catechism
On Tuesday, April 28, at 3:00 p.m. Eastern, King Charles III became the second reigning British monarch ever to address a Joint Meeting of the United States Congress. (The first was Queen Elizabeth II in 1991.) He spoke for roughly 30 minutes. He reaffirmed NATO. He named AUKUS by name. He praised the F-35 program — a binational airframe that the U.K. has been buying U.S.-made and contributing co-production to since 2001. He noted that thousands of U.S. service members are stationed in the U.K. and that British personnel serve in 30 American states. He referenced the previous Saturday’s shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner (“such acts will never succeed”). He also worked in climate.
That mattered because all four of those things — NATO, AUKUS, F-35, climate — are positions the host administration has either thrown a brick at or punched in the face during the calendar year. The royal household does not ad-lib. Every word of a King’s joint-meeting address is staffed for weeks. Foreign Office, Cabinet Office, Buckingham Palace lawyers, the British Embassy’s defense attaché. So a King who walks into Statuary Hall and leads with NATO is not making a verbal slip. He is sending a message.
That night at the state dinner, Charles gave the President the original conning-tower bell from HMS Trump — a Royal Navy submarine launched from a U.K. shipyard in 1944, deployed to the Pacific theater. He told the President at the toast: “Should you ever need to get hold of us, just give us a ring.” That bell is now reportedly in the East Wing.
“We do not embark on these remarkable endeavors together out of sentiment. We do so because they build greater shared resilience for the future, so making our citizens safer for generations to come.” — King Charles III, Joint Meeting of Congress, April 28, 2026
AUKUS Pillar 1 (the SSN-AUKUS submarine program) and Pillar 2 (advanced capabilities — AI, quantum, undersea, hypersonics) were re-validated on the front page in front of the entire United States Congress and most of cable news. If you are an Australian-, U.S.-, or U.K.-domiciled small business with a Pillar 2 capability, this was the most expensive marketing in your sector this year, and it cost you nothing. The next FY27 NDAA mark will not undercut AUKUS without a Senator publicly walking back something a 77-year-old monarch said in a chamber where every member is on tape applauding.
3. The First Fully Partisan Fed Chair Vote: Banking Committee Sends Kevin Warsh 13–11
On Wednesday, April 29, the Senate Banking Committee voted 13–11 to advance Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors (4-year term) and as a Member of the Board (14-year term from February 1, 2026). All thirteen Republicans yes. All eleven Democrats no. It was the first fully partisan committee vote on a Fed Chair nominee in the committee’s history. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) noted it in a release. Former Fed economist Claudia Sahm called it “not normal.”
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) had vowed to block Warsh’s nomination if DOJ continued its criminal probe of outgoing Chair Jerome Powell. DOJ closed the investigation last week. Tillis dropped his hold. On Thursday, April 30, Majority Leader Thune filed cloture on both Warsh nominations. Final confirmation vote is scheduled for the week of May 11 — the week the Senate returns from recess. Powell’s term as Chair expires May 15. Warsh would step in cleanly with no gap.
A point of procedural trivia worth knowing: a 2019 Senate precedent change cut post-cloture debate to two hours for most executive nominees, but explicitly excluded Level I Executive Schedule positions, which the Fed Chair is. So Warsh’s confirmation is entitled to up to 30 hours of post-cloture debate. The week of May 11 is going to be a long one for the C-SPAN crew.
Every credit line you have, every capital purchase you finance, every customer deposit you collect was set against an interest-rate path most of the market has been pricing as roughly continuous from Powell into a successor. A Warsh chairmanship — particularly one installed by 50 Republican votes with zero Democrats — is not necessarily different on policy, but it is different on expected volatility of policy. FOMC meetings now arrive against a backdrop of “this body’s chair was confirmed with no votes from one party.” Markets will reprice not the central tendency but the variance. Tighten cash-management discipline. Lock in fixed-rate debt where you can. Stretch your accounts payable; accelerate accounts receivable.
4. The Whistleblower Bill You Should Already Have on Your HR Calendar: S. 874 Passes Senate by UC
On Tuesday, April 29, the Senate passed S. 874, the Expanding Whistleblower Protections for Contractors Act of 2025, by unanimous consent. Authored by Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) and Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA), the bill amends two existing statutes — 10 U.S.C. § 4701 (defense contractor employees) and 41 U.S.C. § 4712 (non-defense contractor employees) — to close loopholes that have left federal contractor and grantee employees vulnerable to retaliation when they report fraud, waste, abuse, gross mismanagement, or violations of law on a federal contract.
Important provisions worth tracking if you employ anyone under any DoD, NASA, or IC contract:
Refusal-to-obey is now expressly protected. An employee who refuses an order that would require violation of law on a federal contract or subcontract is protected from reprisal. Pre-dispute arbitration agreements cannot waive these rights. Any employment policy, form, or contractual condition that purports to waive these protections is null. Talk to your employment counsel about your existing arbitration clauses. Executive branch officials are explicitly forbidden from requesting reprisal. And there is a disciplinary mechanism for those who do. Coverage extends to former employees whose protected disclosure occurred prior to termination.
CBO scores it at less than $500,000 over 2026–2030. This is a procedural reform, not a budget item. The bill now travels to the House, where the companion is H.R. 5578.
This is the rare bill that reads as if a small contractor’s general counsel actually had a hand in drafting it. If you are a sub on a defense or NASA prime contract — or a grantee — and an employee has ever reported up the chain about a noncompliance or a fraud risk, your prior playbook on retaliation exposure was complicated by the patchwork of differing protections under Titles 10 and 41. Once this clears the House and gets signed, you have one cleaner standard to train your supervisors against. Update your handbook now. Update your arbitration boilerplate. Brief your HR team. The exposure you avoid is your own.
5. The Air Force Wants $71.1 Billion for Space and a Bill for Iran. The Defense Approps Subcommittee Says “Show Your Work.”
On Thursday, April 30, at 9:30 a.m. in 2358-C Rayburn, the House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee held its FY27 budget hearing for the Department of the Air Force. Witnesses: Secretary of the Air Force Dr. Troy Meink, Chief of Staff of the Air Force Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach, Chief of Space Operations Gen. Chance Saltzman.
The big number: the Space Force requested $71.1 billion for FY27 — a 124% increase over the FY26 request of roughly $40 billion. Justification: China and Russia are not standing still. China has dramatically expanded its on-orbit presence; both nations continue to test and develop dedicated space combat capabilities. “A present threat, not a future one,” Meink told the subcommittee.
The Air Force ask is structured around a few large signals: $24.8B for Weapons System Sustainment — $22.6B Air Force, $2.2B Space Force. Most of it is depot maintenance, software updates, engine overhauls. 24 F-15EXs, 15 KC-46s, 23 T-7s, plus a “healthy request” for F-47 (NGAD) and the next-generation bomber. FSRM up 110% to $13.6B for the Air Force, and FSRM up over 200% for the Space Force — including “generational investments in space launch infrastructure on both coasts.” MILCON up 105%, with new mission bed-downs called out for F-47, Sentinel, B-21, and the “Spaceport of the Future.” A 23% increase in O&M and $9.9B for the flying-hour program, targeting over a million pilot flying hours.
Chairman Ken Calvert (R-CA) opened by acknowledging Air Force operations in Venezuela and Iran. He flagged that a supplemental request will likely come to address the aircraft lost and the munitions expended in Iran during Operation Epic Fury — A-10s, B-1s, F-15Es, B-52s — and noted it is unclear how stocks will be replenished and inventory losses repaired.
“A budget of this scale will test the acquisition workforce. The committee will work closely with the services throughout the budget process to find ways to accelerate fielding of platforms needed by warfighters.” — Chairman Ken Calvert (R-CA)
This is the cycle’s biggest opportunity for sub-tier defense suppliers. A $24.8B WSS request — which historically gets 60–80% awarded against smalls and second-tier contractors — and a $13.6B FSRM line for facilities work that is heavily IDIQ MATOC and small-business-set-aside friendly, are both staring at HAC-D right now. Three things to do this week: (a) check your DSBS profile is current; (b) call the customer at your installation’s CE shop and confirm what FY27 FSRM scopes are being teed up; (c) if you have any A-10/B-1/B-52/F-15E sustainment or depot-overhaul capability, get your SAM.gov filters on Operation Epic Fury supplemental keywords now.
Weekly Awards
🏆 The Rubber Stamp Award
Most pointless legislative maneuver of the week
The First Fully Partisan Fed Chair Vote in the History of the Senate Banking Committee. Thirteen yes. Eleven no. Strict party line. A nominee for the chair of the Federal Reserve — the position that, more than any other, depends for its credibility on bipartisan legitimacy — moves out of committee with not a single member of the minority party voting yes. Sen. Tillis dropped his hold the day after DOJ closed its criminal probe of the outgoing chair. The optics were “Powell is no longer being investigated, so I will now vote to replace him.” Confirmation vote week of May 11. Powell’s term ends May 15. Set your DVR.
🌫️ The Fog Machine
Most deliberately confusing play of the week
“The 60-day clock pauses or stops in a ceasefire.” A sentence offered by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, at a Senate hearing on April 30, as the administration’s interpretation of the War Powers Resolution. It is a creative reading. The statute itself does not contain the word “pause,” does not contain the word “ceasefire,” and does not provide for the clock to stop on the basis of any presidential characterization of the operational tempo. What the statute does provide is a written certification mechanism in subsection (b) that the President has not used. So the clock did not pause on Friday. The clock ran out. The campaign continues, on the legal basis that one cabinet officer said one sentence at one hearing.
ICYMI
- King Charles III state dinner. Following the Joint Meeting address, the President hosted the King and Queen Camilla at a White House state dinner. The conning-tower bell from HMS Trump (1944) was the headline gift. Diplomatic gift-giving has historically been an ambassador’s portfolio; a head-of-state hand-off is rarer and more expensive to staff.
- Robert Cekada confirmed as ATF Director by Senate vote on Tuesday, April 28 at 2:15 p.m. The bureau has been under acting leadership since January.
- S.J.Res. 99 (USCIS Employment Authorization Documents rule disapproval) failed 47–50 on Wednesday, April 29 — a Congressional Review Act resolution that would have voided the EAD rule revision.
- S.J.Res. 139 (EPA Colorado air pollution rule disapproval) — motion to proceed taken up on the Senate floor late afternoon Wednesday, April 29; outcome not yet on the record at press time.
- S. 4344 (FISA Section 702 three-year reauthorization) — Thune secured unanimous consent for a cloture vote no later than Friday, May 1. Surveillance authority that affects every federal contractor handling foreign-nexus communications.
- House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence held a closed FY27 budget hearing with DNI Tulsi Gabbard and USDI&S Bradley Hansell. The intelligence community FY27 ask has not been declassified.
- House Appropriations FY27 National Security/State markup — rescheduled to Tuesday, April 28 in 2359 Rayburn.
- Senate adjourned for week-long recess after Thursday, April 30. Reconvenes Monday, May 11 at 3:00 p.m.
- DHS shutdown is on day 78. The bipartisan Senate-passed bill from March 27 (H.R. 7147) is still sitting on the House calendar, untouched.
The Briefcase
This week's chaos level: TURNING FOR HOME, TWO LENGTHS OFF THE LEAD, JOCKEY HASN'T GONE TO THE WHIP YET
The week ran a six-furlong sprint (King Charles), a mile-and-an-eighth filly stakes (S. 874 Whistleblower), a mile-and-a-quarter classic (Iran War Powers #6), and a mile-and-a-half stakes-day undercard (FY27 Air Force/Space Force budget). The favorites won three of the four. The longshot won the only one most people noticed. Your correspondent owes Cherie DeVaux and Golden Tempo a nod. Pour the Woodford, raise the silver cup, sing the song, and go to bed early. The Senate is in recess. You have one quiet week before Warsh’s confirmation vote. Use it.
Your Turn
The Senate reconvenes Monday, May 11. Powell’s term ends May 15. Which of these happens FIRST?
A) Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair on a strict party-line floor vote
B) The President files a written 30-day “unavoidable military necessity” extension certification under 50 U.S.C. § 1544(b)
C) The House passes the bipartisan Senate-passed DHS funding bill (H.R. 7147)
D) Susan Collins votes yes on a 7th Iran War Powers resolution and the margin closes to 48–49
E) Cherie DeVaux wins the Preakness with Golden Tempo
Hit reply and tell us. Best answers featured next week. (The smart money is on A. C is dead in the water until the House Speaker can whip a vote count he hasn’t been able to whip in 78 days. D is now plausible for the first time. E is the longshot, but Golden Tempo went off at 23-1 and look how that worked out.)
Source presentation is carried in the article body where applicable. Reported facts and analytic judgment are kept distinct.